The models on the scale of Ukraine

Agricultural lands in the stock of land of Ukraine occupy 42.3 million hectares, including 34.5 million hectares of arable land. According to diverse sources from 10 to 15 million hectares are subject to various degradation or contaminated. Therefore, evaluation of the models on a national scale was carried out based on 20 million hectares of the most fertile lands.

• According to the parameters of the model 1 " Energy raw materials", the value of products with regard to the NPK carry-over makes up $11 billion.
• In case of the model 2 "Biodiesel" with the processing of meal and straw into biogas this figure will be doubled.
• Model 3 "Biogas" is less economically attractive, but in addition to ensuring the gas independence food security is also achieved.
• Models 4 and 5 are energetically self-sufficient, with animal food production worth $50-$80 billion.

The result is establishing the country's food security and strengthening its energy independence, which may serve as a basis for recovery and full use of all agricultural lands. 

Transformation of organic carbon as an energy carrier

• With the accumulation in the crop rotation of 10 t/ha of dry organic matter, 1.3 tons/ha of crop residues remain in the soil, the rest is used for biofuels and livestock needs.
• A half is spent on animals, and another half is removed in the faeces, which together with the litter makes up 5.1 tons and is transformed into 1400 m3 of methane and 2.7 tons of biohumus.
• In total, the soil receives 4 t/ha of organic matter and all the macro-and micronutrients are replaced.
• The output is 0.8 tons/ha of food and biofuels, and 1.7 t/ha of methane (Н, С, О, N).
• The environmental effects: no emissions from fossil fuels. On the contrary, CO2 gets linked, CH4 is trapped in biogas stations, and all waste is recycled for fertilizer. 

Methodology of formation of the global bioenergy agroecosystem

• Formation of the global bioenergy agroecosystem is conducted by separate business structures.
• There are countless options for their operation, from the simplest production cycle to extremely complex scenarios.
• The procedure of search of a close-to-the-optimal structure is based on multivariate modeling applied to the peculiarities of the specific conditions.
• It’s is a complex and time-consuming process which requires a large number of calculations.
• In this connection, an operative multivariate modeling of production activity without special software is rather problematic.

Algorithm of the software complex

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Modeling of a local agroecosystem

• Computer modeling allows predicting the consequences of management decisions prior to their implementation in practice in production systems, for which a real experiment could lead to large losses or even to destruction.
• It is illustrated by the example of the production system "Slavutych", on which the program is being tested.
• The advantage is that changing one of the system’s parameters immediately shows fluctuations of the others.
• Apart from the parameter shown on the figure, it’s possible to analyze many other parameters.

The realignment of the agricultural production

• The agrosphere has a significant potential of production of food and energy, which is important when addressing the security of mankind in the future.
• The modern technologies allow implementing this in full.
• This potential is sufficient for obtaining 0.4-0.8 t/ha of food and to strengthen the independence from fossil fuels: 0.2-0.4 t/ha of liquid fuel and 2-3 thousand m3/ha of methane.
• Optimization of industrial structure in regard to specific conditions and the creation of closed production cycles allow alienating from agroecosystem only components of the air: carbon, oxygen, nitrogen and hydrogen.
• Systematically expanding internal rotation of minerals and bionitrogen, positive balance of humus, crop rotation and biological waste sterilization minimizes the use of agrochemicals and move to high-yield bioorganic farming.
• Bioenergy agricultural production can serve as an alternative to nonrenewable energy sources, provide a systematic production growth without additional resources, have positive influence on the environment and successfully solve social problems.

The formation of the power-generating, ecologically balanced agricultural production will not happen spontaneously.  It requires the technological reorientation of each of the economic systems through appropriate governmental policy, as well as by means of development of pilot production facilities, based on which retraining of agrarian managers of various levels will be carried out.

Model 5 <<<